State of the State of Lake Tahoe Resort Real Estate - Fall '09

As we move into the last quarter of '09 and the anticipation of winter, now’s a good time to take stock in what has transpired this past season, nay this past year.

As we entered 2009 the headlines were dire with dark news reported on the economy and our financial markets. Realestate had taken it on the chin for over three years with dramatic declines in homes sold and sales prices. Financing was hard to find not to mention a willing, qualified buyer.

Good news- At least partial good news-

What a difference 10 months makes. In the middle of our wonderful Fall season here in Tahoe, I’m pleased to report that the real estate market has been showing signs of recovery.

YTD closed home sales have increased by 10% as compared to last year at this time and the pending sales have increased by nearly 50% as compared to the same numbers last year. Both are good indicators but coupled with the lower inventory stats (down 5% from last year at this time) we can glean that the supply and demand factors will start to play in the favor of a recovering real estate market-

Local median home prices have continued to fall year over year by 18% Sept '09 over Sept '08. This is the largest decline we've seen since we began tracking stats in 2001.

What does this mean?

Due to the decline in home prices and therefore the attractive affordability, buyers are pushing back into the market. We’re busy assisting buyers, qualifying and finding them homes that fit their budget! Hence the increase in pending sales. Many escrows are however still pending due to the nature of purchasing a short sale or a foreclosure.The prices are still soft and will be until the short sales and foreclosures are absorbed and taken out of the market.

Forecast the future-

We are seeing prices beginning to stabilize OR not decline at the same rate, which was about 1% per month. While the perception of and confidence in the real estate market has improved dramatically, REAL recovery or stability will be contingent on a few factors:

#1) The economy and job recovery,

#2) Interest rates for home loans continuing at the attractive rates we have enjoyed the,  past few years,

#3) The flow of credit; providing financing available to home buyers,

#4) The flow of real estate inventory coming on the market and the unknown factor of foreclosures and short sales.

Interestingly many resort markets, like ours, have faired better by comparison than their traditional and feeder markets. California for example, has suffered tremendously with prices declining by over 50% on a statewide basis (and more in many markets) from the peak of the market. One benefit that we can credit to our market’s resilience, by comparison, is our limited supply of new construction, that and the amazing 4 season resort that we enjoy-

Our market has adjusted by about 30% from the over inflated prices that were a product of the easy supply of money that had no accountability built into the process, Are we done adjusting? Well that remains to be seen BUT I believe, based on the trends, that we are near or at the bottom of this realestate cycle!

Whew!

This gives us latitude to say…  It’s a great time to buy! And as a seller, if you’re priced right, you can look to actually sell, close the transaction and move on with your life plans! So let’s get to it and finish the year off and start 2010 with a bang (of celebration)!

Thank you for your patronage; it has been a long and interesting journey! Pleased to say we survived and are busy again! That’s a good thing! 

Best Wishes,
Deb Howard
NV/CA Broker Owner CRS, RSPS, EPRO
Deb Howard & Company
Lake Tahoe's Real Estate Resource
866-542-2912 toll free
530-542-8657 fax
deb@realtordeb.com
www.realtordeb.com
3599 Lake Tahoe Blvd. Ste A
South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150